| 30 March 2010
The NCAA moving the declaration date to more than a month earlier at May 8th is going to have an enormous impact on NCAA players interested in declaring, and through association the NBA.
By this stage there's really not that much accuracy in the information out there on the prospects (other than those at the top of the tree)... I think that the original intent of the NCAA was to make it more difficult for college players to leave, but all they've done is ensure that guys leave with worse information.
And that will lead to more guys leaving who shouldn't. A bad decision by the NCAA board, with little thought behind it.
Some thoughts on the decision...
Could the earlier date provide more clarity for NBA teams making the decisions - and through that - college players?
I don't think so. I think the earlier date provides LESS clarity. Guys will declare at that earlier date, retain agents earlier, and be screwed over earlier (basically).
Surely there is benefit to be had in teams knowing who is in the draft sooner rather than later...
Except they don't (know who they will draft - they will keep their cards close to their chest as they always do). The player loses out here.
There are two reasons that the NCAA did this. 1/ a misguided, fated-to-fail attempt at keeping college players in college. DOOOOOOMED. & 2/ thumbing their collective nose at the NBA.
There are two reasons that the NCAA did this. 1/ a misguided, fated-to-fail attempt at keeping college players in college. DOOOOOOMED. & 2/ thumbing their collective nose at the NBA.
The people that this move hurts? The college players.
Less time to get good information will equate to a heap of players declaring that shouldn't. Athletes are - by their very nature - confident. And many, many guys believe that they'll get drafted. Far more than there are even draft spots.
Often players are encouraged by 'experts' to stay in college, as they have very little chance of making the NBA.
Often players are encouraged by 'experts' to stay in college, as they have very little chance of making the NBA.
Do they listen? Nuh-uh... many don't. Additionally, for guys with a legitimate shot - but a borderline one - it limits the opportunity players have to work out with teams.
Sooner is stupid.
What is the point of good info if the players arent going to listen to it? If players aren't going to listen to advice, then the declaration date is just about irrelevant.
No, the more time there is the more often guys are hearing "better" information.
Regardless of rules, these guys talk to people. Agents, lawyers, teams, pro players. Talk of hype and speculation - that basically only exists for the top players: they are going to get drafted.
Regardless of rules, these guys talk to people. Agents, lawyers, teams, pro players. Talk of hype and speculation - that basically only exists for the top players: they are going to get drafted.
It's not like US Football, where the college game is significantly different from the pro game (and top QBs can sometimes NOT get drafted)... if you're top-ranked at college basketball - you're going to get drafted, pretty much regardless of how you turn out (look at Adam Morrison).
This affects the lower-level college *pretty-good-player* (I use the term lightly).
You have to remember that every one of these college players have played for years, being a bit of a star (probably a huge star in HS, then a definite celebrity in College).
They're doing well, rate themselves as a chance (ALL college athletes are - by their very nature - confident people), and more time to get more information to the contrary is a POSITIVE thing.
If they're not final year, they should be staying in college and either getting better, or simply enjoying the experience (for those unlikely to make it to the next level).
It's not necessarily about 'listening' to advice, it's about hearing it enough for it to sink in. Some guys should just stay in college.
