| 19 May 2009
And it's down to 4 teams... the Conference Finals... who you got? This is what the assembled mind (I think between all of us we qualify as having '1'!) thought:
Err... yeah, excuse those nuts over at PSAMP...
Aaaaanyway, after the jump, check out the detailed analysis of *why*...
Orlando in 7
Homer pick?
Homer pick?
Maybe.
But the Magic are playing up to their potential, and when they do, look out. It doesn't hurt that the Magic have had Cleveland's number in 8 of the last 11 games they've played. Sure, the Cavs have King James, but the who else is going to step up? Mo Williams? Delonte West? Can you really pick those 2 against Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis? It's 0-0 now, but I still pick the Magic in 7, after stealing game 2 at the Q.
Nuggets in 6
This is a tricky one, but I'm picking the upset here. The Nuggets are playing great basketball. They also have Chauncey Billups, who is as important to his team as Kobe Bryant is to the Lakers. I see Carmelo wanting to prove he is on the level of LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, and taking this team to his first Finals appearance.
ECF: Pens in 6
WCF: Wings in 5
What is this basketball you speak of?
WCF: Wings in 5
What is this basketball you speak of?
Lakers in 6
They will play hard. I know, I know. The Nuggets are the fashionable pick, and there's nearly no way to like the Lakers in this series without it seeming, at least a little bit, like a homer pick.
They will play hard. I know, I know. The Nuggets are the fashionable pick, and there's nearly no way to like the Lakers in this series without it seeming, at least a little bit, like a homer pick.
But I was convinced that this was the best team in the west for too long to abandon them here.
Look: they still get home court, and more importantly, they'll have to good a test here to be able to convince themselves that they don't have to show up for this series.
All of the games will be well contested (and high-scoring) and that will keep LA engaged from the opening tip. Even though I expect Chauncey and Melo and Nene to be great, I just don't think the Nuggets can beat the Lakers while playing at their preferred pace.
Denver's defense is designed less to keep you from scoring than to make you turn it over into more scoring opportunities for themselves, and that's a recipe that's gonna make the Lakers look pretty damned good.
Cavaliers in 6
I'm finally starting to look forward to this series. Orlando proved in Boston that Some nights the 3 ball will fall, and some nights it won't.
I'm finally starting to look forward to this series. Orlando proved in Boston that Some nights the 3 ball will fall, and some nights it won't.
They'll live with that.
I'm counting on some sort of combination of the Magic's perimeter attack, Dwight's defensive game-changing, and the Hedo Turkoglu/Courtney Lee "X" factors to take not just one, but two games in what will still be a convincing Cavs statement series.
Lakers in 7
Denver has looked great so far and Chauncey has transformed that team in a serious way, but I just don't see them beating LA.
Denver has looked great so far and Chauncey has transformed that team in a serious way, but I just don't see them beating LA.
The Lakers had a serious wake-up call against an overachieving Houston team. Bynum will sack up and play well in the series and Fisher won't be as horrible as he's been so far. It will be interesting to see if Carmelo and Kobe get into a pissing match about who can score more points.
If that happens, I like the Nuggets to win because Chauncey will keep Melo from screwing it up. No one on the Lakers has the guts to tell KB24 to stop jacking up stupid shots (other than Philip, but it still won't prevent Kobe from doing it).
That said, I don't think that will happen over the course of the entire series and think the Lakers are just too talented. I expect them to move on.
Cleveland in 6
The Cavs D won't let them lose this series, especially with the streaky outside shooting of the Magic. Their outside shooting will win them some games, but not enough.
The Cavs D won't let them lose this series, especially with the streaky outside shooting of the Magic. Their outside shooting will win them some games, but not enough.
The Cavs are just too good top to bottom and LeBron is on a mission. I'm hoping these predictions come true because LeBron vs. Kobe in the finals is going to give David Stern a consistent orgasm with all the ratings and hype it would generate.
Cavaliers in 6
Yes, I'm biased, but I don't see the Magic putting together four sharpshooting games against the Cavaliers. If they want to win in the Q, they better bring that 60 percent three point shooting.
For every game they could steal in the Q, there is just as good of a chance that the Cavaliers steal one in Amway Arena.
The 8 out of 11 figure is insignificant. Only 3 of those have come with the current Cavalier team, two of them were on the road, and the first one the Cavaliers played without Z and West and still held a halftime lead. Do Turkoglu and Lewis really blow Williams and West out of the water? Sure, if you held a gun to my head, I'd take Lewis/Turkoglu over Williams/West slightly, but I would take Mo Williams if I could choose just one.
He's the perfect complement to LeBron.
Furthermore, the Magic may have a more balanced attack, but if you think Howard and LeBron's impact is a push, that's ridiculous. No one on the Cavaliers can consistently guard Howard, and no one on the Magic can consistently guard LeBron.
The difference?
The Cavaliers get LeBron the ball and he shoots 78 percent from the line. There's a chance in my mind this slips to 7, but the Cavaliers won't lose a Game 7 in the Q.
Lakers in 7
I want to pick the Nuggets; I really do.
I want to pick the Nuggets; I really do.
But, the Lakers have shown that when they feel like playing, they are the most talented team in the association. Bynum is starting to turn it around a bit, and their bench has had some solid contributions.
For the Nuggets to win, Billups must take it to Derek Fisher and the other Laker PGs.
Dahntay Jones needs to frustrate Kobe the entire series and get him off his game (easier said than done).
Denver has the bigs in Nene, Martin, Birdman, etc. to handle the Lakers frontcourt, but they need to continue to play both ends of the floor.
They need to take one of the first two in Los Angeles, and I think they come close but don't pull it off.
Besides, the Lakers have the Black Mamba, and it seems almost destiny that him and LeBron meet in The Finals.
Apologies to Puns and Nugg Doctor on that last statement because I'm sure you've heard enough of it.
Lakers in 7
The Lakers, fine Pau and Kobe, still have what it takes to take out Denver.This won't be a walk in the park, however.
The Nuggets, especially Melo, are still searing hot from the Dallas series.
And while I am fully aware that the Mavs and Lakers cannot be compared within a similar vein of a singular sentence; the true point of the matter is that the Nuggets have the more powerful momentum swing - yes, in spite of having to wait for L.A. to dispose of the Yao-less Rockets.
The Nuggets are simply more focused, motivated, and put together at this point.
If I am so hot for the Nuggs with praise and hopes, why am I calling it for L.A. in 7?
Well two words, KOBE BRYANT.
As much as I am NOT a fan of the guy, I must admit that he can bring it when it needs to be brung, and have enough motivational presence on the court to get his often "lazy" teammates' butts into playoff action.
This is a funny situation where I think L.A. will win the series, but am actually cheering and praying for Denver to come up with a not-so-huge upset.
Kobe, this is like a video game. If you can beat "minor boss" Melo, then you can proceed to the next level and face the "main boss" LeBron later on. Try not to waste too many lives, bullets and healing packs while dealing with Denver, otherwise you might not have enough to deal with the Championship-hungry Dwight-boss or LeBron-boss in the finale.
Cavaliers in 6
I am personally cheering for Dwight and the rest of the Magic on this one.
Unfortunately, hopes and prayers may not be enough to compensate for the Cavs' deeper and more talented bench.
The series will boil down to two things; which team has the better defense and which team's star will be able to bring home the bacon in spite of the oppposing defense. I would call it a wash if this was just about a battle of "wills" between Dwight and Bron, but it really isn't the case here.
Dwight cannot just nulify Bron at will and therefore LBJ's more diverse game will open up more opportunities for the Cavs to execute their win plans and plays.
If the Magic did not lose a chunk of their key guys (i.e. Jameer Nelson) this might be a different story. This is not the time to play the "What if" game though; and as much as versatile an offensive array the Magic has at its disposal, the Cavaliers (QB'ed by LBJ of course) simply have that much more defensive intensity and drive to win it.
This will be a hugely entertaining series to watch, I can't wait!
Cleveland in 5
Cleveland will prove to be human, once, this series. However, they are way too focused and on a mission to win a championship like I've never seen before.
Cleveland will prove to be human, once, this series. However, they are way too focused and on a mission to win a championship like I've never seen before.
Denver in 7
I would love to see a Kobe/Lebron finals, and I won't be surprised if we do, but Chauncey and Co. is about as focused and determined as the Cavs (only with less talent). I think the Lakers weaknesses were exposed against Houston and Denver will certainly jump all over them.
Plus, this is sort of a homer pick with choosing former Pistons star, Chauncey Billups.
Cleveland in 5
Cleveland is just too good this year, as LeBron is the best basketball player on the planet hands down.
Cleveland is just too good this year, as LeBron is the best basketball player on the planet hands down.
Orlando barely squeaked past Boston (which I predicted in 7!), despite the fact that Boston is decimated by injury and nearly depleted of energy. Orlando did their best to choke away that series, so I don't see them seriously challenging the Cavs.
The long layoff will only revitalize Cleveland, as they are on a MISSION this year, and their chemistry is just too rock solid.
Lakers in 7
I expect an epic battle in this series, and it could be an absolute joy to watch.
If LA plays like they are capable of (and did in Game 7 against Houston), they should be able to take this and advance to the Finals. If they do not play up to their abilities, Denver most definitely has a chance to steal this series.
It helps that LA has the home court advantage, and I think it will come down to that being the ultimate difference-maker.
With Malice
Cleveland in 7
I think that this is going to be a better series than anyone suspects. Sure, Cleveland are the best team out East, and amassed the greatest win total this season. But I don't think that necessarily makes them the best team in the Association.
They play in the East, which whilst strong at the top few spots, isn't exactly brimming with depth. They've had an amazingly easy run thus far, LeBron overpowering the competition thus far... but Orlando are starting to come back into believing themselves... something that hasn't happened since Jameer Nelson went down. When they did believe, Orlando were (blasephemy for some) as good as Cleveland. If they can recapture that confidence... and limit LeBron... then Orlando will take it right to the Cavs - and it will all come down to homecourt advantage.
LA in 6
(and I'll be talking about this A LOT in other pieces!)
