| 22 September 2011
However this offseason we're not even sure if there'll be a shortened season like there was in '99. There's every chance it may be skipped all together - making the 2012 offseason one of the richest FA classes in ages - and this could be a ploy by team owners in current negotiations because it floods the market with players, lowering the value of talent.
If the season were to say, go for 40 games (a best case scenario as of right now), here's some discussion on the current free agent crop (unrestricted and restricted)...
1. Jamal Crawford: His stock has to take a hit as JC is a guy that inevitably requires time to fit into his role with his new teams. You can ignore the scoring explosions on arrival to NYK and GSW – NYK and GSW are notable exceptions due to playing style and pace, and not the rule. For teams like CHI and MIA who would have been considering JC, he now has less appeal.
2. Jeff Green: See above. Jeff Green is like the Euro atm – in danger of decertification and worthlessness. Green's temperament itself is not conducive to quickly fitting into a system and offering value; he's too unselfish (a good long term trait) and has confidence issues. I expect him to re-sign in Boston.
3. Dante Cunningham is the perfect guy to benefit from a lockout. He's a contributor, he's efficient, he's selfless - and because he's a hard hat type player he can slot in straight away. Instant defense and underrated offense. His stock will be on the rise and my tip is Charlotte doesn't give him an offer sheet worth considering.
4. Kurt Thomas is a veteran – and veterans adapt better/quicker! Especially the likes of Thomas.
Damn good mid range game? Check.
Solid defender? Check.
Great role model on/off the court? Check.
Thomas will see another season on a contender at the very least. Look for Miami to move here!!!
5. Nene Hilario will take a massive jump. Defense will get good starts to this "half season" and will almost certainly get a playoff berth. Nene can bring that and then some. Pair him up with another even half decent big and all of a sudden you can make a title "run" without having to run the full length.
Think New York here and how this would allow for sliding Amare to the 4. Their 3/4/5 would be the best in the league hands down.
6. Tayshaun Prince is a guy that could take a young team a bit further and realize some potential. We all know the Clippers have always been interested and even tried to make a move last season, but now they will be actively trying to get Prince. A Jordan/Griffin/Prince/Gordon/Williams starting 5 has a nice balance to it and could result in a jump in the elite 8 of the West whilst teams like Portland get caught sleeping.
7. Chuck Hayes: see Kurt Thomas but subtract a bit of age. Once again teams like NYK, SAS, and MIA could overpay this guy on a deal hoping that he gets them over other teams in the shortened season. Chuck Hayes is a stock-winner in a shortened season – guaranteed returns.
8. DeAndre Jordan: Jordan's value takes a hit here because he is still developing. On an 82 game season he is definitely worth the offer of a starting salary but on a shortened season... this is where a team like Indiana or Houston could pounce – both in need of solid C's and probably out of contention this season. If you couple the Clippers thinking they're a shot they may not match the offer and look for a downgrade/trade.
9. Leon Powe: Has everyone forgotten Cleveland? Powe has been injury ravaged. Powe has gotten healthy again. This guy could be a steal and be your 2nd guy off the bench or even a starter. He's still relevant.
10. Kris Humphries: You could get this guy cheap is you get the Nets second guessing. Plus on the right team he comes in and gives toughness at the 4 spot – something many teams require right now. I say he gets overpaid.
11. Carl Landry: I think CL will be a steal for someone and I think that will be a contender. He plays bigger than his height and is efficient. I say underpaid but only because of my next player...
12. David West: I'm calling this as my money-time sleeper, now but West is going to be the Rashard Lewis of this class. Someone will spend too much on him for immediate impact. Because Gasol is staying in Memphis, West becomes the default best big in the league free agency = over paying. Where I'm not sure but I am even willing to call sign/trade on this.
13. Shelden Williams will be overpaid in a deal thatshould also includes the rights to his wife... I mean that in the basketball sens: I honestly would rather have her play at PF on my team than Shelden. That's where he's at at the moment....
14. Thad Young is going to be underpaid. Poor kid – he's as talented as many of the other ¾ swingers out there. Heck even LeBron was impressed with him last playoffs - but Philly won't offer him cash and there aren't many other teams who need what he offers. I honestly think Boston could make a move on this though – if you can get this kid cheap on a 5 year deal he has a solid future and is very coachable.
15. Marcus Thornton is the other big winner in the trade-period-to-come. The kid can light it up and has proven it twice now. If he stays in Sacto he's the starting 2. If he goes almost anywhere else he's the starting 2. CHI, MIA, NYK, ORL are circling...
16. Samuel Dalambert, minus the tantrums, can be a defensive monster in a shortened season. If Pat Riley can convince him that Miami is worth the pay cut he could go get a ring. I don't think he's a ring kinda guy though – I say he ends up going to SAS, DEN, NYK or somewhere where he can make a twin tower combo with an athletic PF.
He will, however, expect to be paid, and then some.
17. Reggie Evans: could have been the biggest winner, but that late season injury is concerning. Prior to that though he was the league leader in REB/48 min. By a country mile. Just what a contender needs – a pseudo Rodman to complement your Batman/Robin combo.
Yes... I am suggesting Miami. Again.
18. Andrei Kirilenko: This is a Tayshaun Prince situation but the injuries worry you here as does AK47's motivation. He'll get a good deal because he can play the 2 – 5 positions but he's not his old self so he'll need to be a bargain for teams to pull the trigger.
19. Nick Young "could" turn himself into a JJ Reddick or Marcus Thornton – he just lacks coaching and discipline. Some team may see that and give him an offer (ATL?).
Conversely he could get a label as an iso player and not go anywhere except o/s.
20. Josh Howard is going to be a bargain bin winner this off-season. For a 3 – 5 mill 1 year deal he's absolutely worth it and a team that is offensively minded would be insane not to consider him.
He was an all-star prior to his injury, and showed signs of his old self toward the end of last year. He's also an above average defender.
