| 04 June 2009
It all comes down to this. If both teams in the Finals play to their peak, then LA will win. The thing that makes it all interesting tho' is that LA's peak has been a hard summit to climb throughout the playoffs thus far. So... what's key?
1. Offense
You've read it all week: "When rolling, LA's offense is the most effective, the most beautiful in the NBA." Well I still firmly believe that when they need to, LA turn it on. Sure, there's the entire well-they-need-an-external-spark which is incredibly frustrating to watch, but if the NBA Finals a year after getting beat up by the Boston Celtics doesn't provide you with impetus? Then nothing ever will. I think it does, and LA will come out prepared to play at a level that Orlando are going to stuggle to deal with. I realise that it may seem disrespectful to other teams in stating that in effect "It's not you, it's me."
... but I still believe it to be so. LA really need an external source to fire them up. The Finals, and anything they can paint as being "disrespect" will do.
2. Defense
Said this just prior to the Western Conference Finals:
"Whilst I'm not going to sit here and state that LA play a lock-down D reminiscent of the Pistons in their prime, it's definitely better than anything that Denver's had to face thus far."
The same's true of the Orlando Magic. Sure, they beat Boston in the second round. But surely no-one's going to sit here and tell me that the Boston they beat were particularly noteworthy. Sans KG and KG's back-up Leon Powe? Then they beat the Cavs, who whilst possessing the inestimable LeBron James, let's not pretend that Cleveland are anything other than quite one dimensional. Granted... that 'one dimension' they do have is pretty goddamn impressive.
But I digress.
LA will provide a level of defense that Orlando are yet to see thus far this post season. Orlando live - and die - by their 3pt shot attempts. LA actually defend quite well against the 3pt shot. John Hollinger brought up an interesting point about Dwight Howard's FT shooting too. On Howard's shots from the charity stripe...
"Any direction you come at it, he's basically a 60 percent free-throw shooter.
But in the upset of Cleveland, he shot 70.1 percent, making 47 of 67 from the stripe. That was huge in particular during Game 4, which the Magic won in overtime in part because Howard made 7 of 9 free-throw shots. But such a phenomenon is unlikely to continue in the Finals."
If that's so, then defending Dwight got a little easier. Still a hellishly tough job... but a lil' easier.
3. Kobe Bryant & Pau Gasol
Not going to talk a lot on Kobe, as we all know that "Kobe's Kobe". He's going to get his, and he's about to see probably the least imposing defender he's faced for the entire playoffs. But don't look for too many huge score lines from Bryant. Kobe'll be looking to facilitate the offense, and choosing his spots to be the aggressor.
But Pau... let's have a look at Pau. When Bynum's on the floor, Gasol will be guarded by Lewis, and that's a huge mis-match. When Bynum's off the floor, Gasol has to remain aggressive. In doing this he'll stand to 'assist' Howard in accumulating fouls, and also make sure that Howard stays focused on him - and that will make it easier for others to get points. Howard leaves Gasol to help/block? Then Pau has the capability to make the Magic pay. It's key that LA look to Pau tho' - as John Hollinger pointed out on his piece on Gasol, if they don't then Orlando get a free pass on playing Lewis as Gasol's defender. Look for LA to use the long Spaniard, and early.
4. Turning Orlando into a Jump-shooting team (Jump shooting teams rarely win the NBA Championship)
Protect the paint. And whilst that's an easier-said-than-done proposal when facing a beast of Dwight Howard's nature, Orlando do love to shoot the outside ball... they can easily be encouraged to do this. LA have enjoyed a LOT of success when they've put pressure on penetration. Don't give easy looks outside, but make sure that the paint is protected!
5. Role players
I have a sneaking suspicion that Lamar Odom's going to be very, very big this Finals.
Odom (and Gasol) have a lot to prove after their Houdini act last Finals, and they'll need no reminder on this.
Trevor Ariza's supplied some defensive intensity, and besides two very heads-up plays on inbound passes, Ariza's been a deadly sharpshooter this playoffs. For all the song and dance about Orlando's 3pt shooters, LA's been the more accurate from out deep.
At different times, Shannon Brown, Derek Fisher, Sasha Vujacic and even the much maligned Luke Walton all stepped up. Hell, Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga will probably get minutes on 
Dwight Howard. And they'll all need to again before all's said and done.
Dwight Howard. And they'll all need to again before all's said and done. But none more so than Lamar Odom. For LA to win, Odom has to believe that he's one of the best players on the floor.
Because he can.
Last thing - and worth noting: the take on Gasol or Odom as Finals MVP is 8-1 for Gasol, and a massive 30-1 for Odom... might be worth a lil' splurge...
Oh... yes: LA in 5. Maybe 6.
